If you’re a fan of Justin Fields and like the Bears, but want to prioritize draft placement this year over them actually winning games this year, you were probably pleased with their loss to the Lions last Sunday .
Sure, it seems the same sentiment can be applied to each of their games over the past three weeks. It was another explosive offensive performance, especially on the field, but Chicago’s defensive struggles kept the Lions in the game. He throws a premature pick-6 tossed by Fields to former Ohio State teammate Jeff Okudah, and it wasn’t enough for the Bears to secure the win.
Each week going forward, I’ll get the spreadsheets and data to see how the Bears fared in the previous game. I hope this is as informative an exercise for you as it probably will be for me.
Let’s see what the numbers say about how the Bears played in Week 10.
Fields with a decent passing game held back by INT
Justin Fields’ performance on the court last week was outstanding and we’ll get to some details soon. That said, how did it perform in the air?
Here’s where Fields ranked among the 28 starting quarterbacks in key passing analysis in Week 10:
- 0.174 earned points per game (15th)
- 0.033 points above average per game (15th)
- -5.63 BEE (21st)
- 2.4 PAR (18th)
- Passing Rating 99.4 (11th)
- 110.2 IQR (tenth)
All in all, Fields had a perfect game on Sunday. EPA in particular was no doubt majorly affected by the Lions scoring a touchdown after his interception, but even with the interception, he was pretty average in the league in efficiency.
Efficiency gap in running game
Of the 59 players who had at least 5 carries, here’s where Fields, Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery ranked in key stats:
- Points earned per run: Fields – 0.269 (6th), Herbert – 0.131 (15th), Montgomery – -0.044 (39th)
- Points above average per run: Fields – 0.210 (6th), Herbert – 0.094 (15th), Montgomery – -0.080 (40th)
- Total EPA: Fields – 8.43 (1st), Herbert – 0.09 (19th), Montgomery – -0.41 (30th)
- Total PAR: Fields – 2.8 (6th), Herbert – 1.2 (15th), Montgomery – -0.5 (35th)
- Broken up and missed tackles per attempt: Herbert – 30% (4th), Fields – 23.1% (T-11th), Montgomery – 22.2% (13th)
- Yards Per Attempt: Fields – 11.3 (2nd), Herbert – 5.7 (T-11th), Montgomery – 4.1 (T-30th)
In more advanced stats—with broken and missed tackles being an exception—Montgomery was a below average runner and the least efficient ball handler on the Bears by a wide margin.
This does not bode well for Chicago’s ground play going forward, as Herbert is now on injured reserve. He had slowly begun to wear down Montgomery’s touches in the run game in recent weeks, and among 53 players with at least 60 carries this year, Herbert is tied for the best yards per carry average with a 6.0 yards per carry average. 108 carries. .
That said, Fields’ presence on the ground indicates that the Bears will continue to have an efficient fast offense. Having Montgomery on the field more could be good news for their passing attack, as he has proven to be a better pass collector and pass protector than Herbert.
Brisker shines, but the CB Bears struggle in coverage
Performance-wise, Jaquan Brisker was one of the best performing safeties in the NFL in Week 10.
The Penn State alumnus allowed 2 catches on 3 targets for 12 yards of coverage. He had . 211 points saved per game, which ranked third among all safeties, and he also ranked third in his position with . 175 points above average per game. In both statistical categories, he was 16th in the league among all defensemen who had been targeted at least once in coverage.
Chicago also got an above-average game in coverage from linebackers Joe Thomas and Nicholas Morrow, but their cornerbacks struggled significantly against Detroit’s gun pack. In terms of points saved per game, the Bears rank Kyler Gordon 50th among 90 cornerbacks, Jaylon Jones 70th and Jaylon Johnson 74th. In terms of above-average points per game, the cornerbacks finished 53rd, 71st, and 76th, respectively. Both Jaylons placed in the bottom third of cornerbacks in PAR and WAR as well.
Johnson especially had his struggles, as he allowed 3 catches on 5 targets for 72 yards. His coverage issues played a big part in Amon-Ra St. Brown finishing with 119 receiving yards in the afternoon.