There is a strong and growing trend among parties in power to draw political and social conclusions from spreadsheet data rather than direct research from frontline statistics. This can cause a substantial disconnect between government policies and the experiences of businesses and citizens.

This pattern emerged during National’s last tenure, in which many of its executives have become fixated on spreadsheet data to suit political intentions, rather than having accurate data reflected directly from the sources.

It is imperative that leadership collects data from frontline sources to determine actual real-world statistics, such as data on corrections, data from health professionals, and data collected by NGOs, such as the Salvation Army or the Red Cross.

Research indicates that nearly all recent incumbent government leaders have developed a substantial disconnect between real-world events transpiring and impacting society and the high level, on simplified data directed at party leadership.

This trend continues, as is indicative of the Prime Minister’s own rhetoric. Trend analysis reveals a marked disconnect between events that impact large portions of the population and the leadership perspective that denies these events have an impact.

One example is the crime rate and consistent rhetoric of government leaders who observe that “juvenile crime rates are falling” and that “overall crime is seeing no increase”.

These concluding remarks made by the leadership are indicative of a broad disconnect between the ever-growing model of organized crime syndicates in New Zealand and the use of young people. Furthermore, it also appears to attempt to discredit business owners and insurance companies who are paying the brunt of the costs associated not only with increased crime in urban centers, but also with the social impact of increased victimization.

From New Zealand crime statistics, crime death rates reached a high of around 30,000 in May, where the report and statistics were collected. This substantial death toll has both a social and economic impact that no high-level government statistic correlates.

The costs associated with hospitalization, mental health and social support, as well as loss of productivity are not collected or provided to leadership. It is for this reason that Trend Analysis Network identified in a previous release that government leaders continue to try to save money by using early release programs, which can often have much higher costs associated with victims.

Furthermore, the costs and impact associated with having the same criminals repeatedly arrested and then re-entered into the criminal justice system are not integrated into the high-level statistics used by leaders to make decisions.

Ultimately, the business impact, including loss of revenue, rising insurance premiums, and other associated operating expenses in high crime areas, can have a substantial negative impact on the communities served by these companies.

The tendency of incumbent ruling parties to disconnect and create policies that fail to address real-world problems increases by a margin, each additional year they retain power. This trend therefore exacerbates the results of social and economic degradation, not because of the failed or inconsistent policies put in place, but because of the actual statistics impacting the constituency.

If the current Labor leadership continues on the developing trend, by the 2023 election season the trend analysis predicts higher crime victimization rates, degraded economic forecasts and a disproportionate likelihood of a change of government.

Trend Analysis Network is a New Zealand-based think tank created to identify and publish analytical results of future trends in politics, society and economics.

Other recent versions:

Trend analysis: potential for major economic upheaval before 2023

Trend analysis: government misinterpretations in banking law

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