In this piece are my personal NFL Week 12 projections for every player relevant to fantasy and prop (unless I missed one here or there).

This week, I will keep the following schedule for my showings.

  • Tuesday: Make the first pass of player screenings in the morning.
  • Thursday: Do the initial refresh the morning before your first Thanksgiving game.
  • Saturday Sunday: Do the final update late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

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After my final update, if you want to see an even more up-to-date set of player projections, check out our official Week 12 FantasyPros projections, which we use at BettingPros to power up our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet and Prop Bet Analyzer, which are both great resources.

While you can use these projections to make fantasy decisions, I recommend you also look up the following.

NFL Week 12 Player Screenings

My projections are organized by projected fancy points. I use the default FantasyPros Half PPR scoring settings. Note that my projected fantasy points include two-point conversions and lost fumbles (and production passes for Taysom Hill), but I haven’t included those projections in the following tables to save space.

After my positional rankings, I’ve added some player notes.

Note that my projections differ from my charts, which are much more intuitive and hand-crafted. With my rankings, I try to take into account the positives and negatives. I think about the range of results and the potential expected value. I am currently number 10 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest after finishing number 14 last year. My projections are largely automated and created with formulas in a spreadsheet. With my projections, I’m trying to predict the median only.

NFL Week 12 QB Projections


NFL Week 12 QB Notes

Josh Allen (BUF) vs. DET: Over the past month, Allen (950-4-6 passing, 5.9 y/y) has looked more like himself in 2018-19 (6.2 y/y) than the dominator of 2020-21 (7 .6 y/y), but has had an elite fantasy floor with 24-226-2 rushing since Week 8. For the season, Allen is still the #1 quarterback. 2 with 25.8 FPPG (according to our Fantasy Football Leaders Report). The Lions are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed by quarterbacks (24.0 FPPG, according to our Fantasy Points Allowed report). For his career, Allen is 20-11-2 ATS on the road (per Action Network).

Geno Smith (SEA) vs. LV: Smith is No. 1 in completion percentage (72.8%) and No. 4 in EPA + CPOE (.149) and AY/A (8.3) composite, just as we all expected before the season started. Smith is now the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year (-135 in DraftKings). At home in Seattle, Smith is 5-1 ATS and should be rested and ready for the Week 11 bye. Smith has a five-star matchup against the Raiders, who are No. 32 in EPA defensive dropbacks (. 224) and outnumber DVOA (32.5%, per Football Outsiders).

NFL Week 12 RB Projections

NFL Week 12 RB Notes

Kenneth Walker (SEA) vs. LV: Since No. 1 RB Rashaad Penny (leg, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 5, Walker went off with 618 yards and seven touchdowns on 106 carries and 17 targets in six games. Walker should be fresh out of Week 11, and could see extra carries as the home favorite (-195 on BetRivers). The Raiders rank fourth in most fantasy points allowed by running backs (24.0 FPPG).

Jeff Wilson (MIA) vs. HOU: In his first two games with the Dolphins, Wilson had a passing snap (70-for-46), bust-out (34-for-23), and product (215 yards, 2 touchdowns, 113 yards, 2 touchdowns) one-and-a-half team Raheem Mostert in weeks 9-10. Wilson should know even more of the playbook by week 11 bye, and could have a big caseload as a huge home favorite (-600 on BetMGM). The Texans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (28.9 FPPG). The Dolphins are 11-4 ATS at home with QB Tua Tagovailoa for his career.

Check out my Week 12 Advance Bet Preview on Dolphins vs. Texans.

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NFL Week 12 WR Projections

NFL Week 12 WR Notes

Tyreek Hill (MIA) vs. HOU: Hill is No. 1 in the league with 1,148 receiving yards, 81 receptions overall, 47 receptions 10+ yards, and 20 receptions 20+ yards (according to our Advanced WR Stats Report). He is also No. 1 with a target rate of 22% per click (according to our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). Hill is rightfully the non-quarterback favorite for Offensive Player of the Year (+250 on FanDuel).

Tee Higgins (CIN) at TEN: Aside from the two contests in which he was heavily impacted by injuries (Weeks 1 and 5), Higgins was receiving 48-685-3 on 69 targets in eight games. #1 WR Ja’Marr Chase (hip) is out of Week 8 and uncertain of returning to action for Week 12. The Titans are #3 in most fantasy points allowed at wide receivers (33.6 FPPG) and dealing with injuries to CBs Caleb Farley (back, IR), Kristian Fulton (hamstring) and Elijah Molden (groin) and FS Amani Hooker (shoulder) and Lonnie Johnson (hamstring).

NFL Week 12 TE Projections

NFL Week 12 TE Notes

Travis Kelce (KC) vs. LAR: Kelce is the #1 tight end with 18.9 FPPG, well ahead of #2 Mark Andrews (12.2): The advantage Kelce provides to the position is monstrous. Kelce is No. 1 at the position with 21 red zone targets, 34 receptions of 10+ yards and 14 receptions of 20+ yards (according to our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). For Kelce, the matchup is almost irrelevant.

Foster Moreau (LV) at SEA: In his five games this year without No. 1 TE Darren Waller (hamstring, IR), Moreau was receiving 15-177-1 on 26 targets. The Seahawks are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed by tight ends (16.5 FPPG).

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